Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Explaining New Hampshire

Speaking simply out of nothing more than pure conjecture, my guess (or wishful thinking) in looking at the numbers is that the NH independents have clearly indicated a preference for the Democrats in the general election. I say this because the total numbers of votes cast for the Democrats far outstripped those cast for the Republicans. The Democrats received about 55% of votes cast and the Republicans only 45% of votes cast. This in a state where registered Democratic voters constitute 26% of all eligible voters and registered Republicans constitute 30% of all eligible voters.

Now, my reasoning is that if independents trended towards the Democrats so significantly, then it seems to me that independents would likely be more open to any of the democratic frontrunner candidates overall and more concerned about who the Republican candidate would be, propelling them to opt for making sure a frontrunner candidate in the Republican party would be more to their liking and inclination: i.e. McCain. So, I think some independents likely to vote for the Democrat in the general elections peeled off to vote in the Republican primary today for McCain. And given Obama's appeal to more independent voters, these peel off votes for McCain likely cost Obama at least a couple of percentage points against Hillary. Probably not enough to really call into question Hillary's good showing, but perhaps enough to have one a really close squeaker.

Just some thoughts. And here's another ...

I think the Obama/Edwards tag-team at the NH Democrat debate really makes it likely that, should Edwards pull out of the race, he'll throw his backing behind Obama. And this would sink Hillary for sure.

Furthermore, although Edwards might not want to do a VP repeat, should he be open to that possibility again, an Obama overture to Edwards for the VP slot in the general would really, I think, solidify the potential for a real mandate victory by the Democrats in November. Having Edwards on the ticket would put the South in play for the Democrats, and it would certainly make Louisiana viable given what I think is strong support for Edwards here as many perceive him to be the only national candidate (of either party) to have truly paid attention to Louisiana's post-Katrina situation.

10 comments:

LAmom said...

Having Edwards on the ticket would put the South in play for the Democrats

I think the South would be in play for Obama regardless of who were running with him. I have a feeling that the large African-American population there is going to be really excited about him.

In 2004, as the primary race was proceeding, it started to sound like John Edwards was running for running mate even when he was supposed to be still in the race for the presidency. From the sound of the NH debate, I wondered whether he was starting to put in his bid to be Obama's running mate. It's fine with me if he does that. I'm concerned with a candidate's policies; their character is an issue too, but only in the broadest sense (i.e., not a criminal). A little brown-nosing is not a significant character flaw in my book.

President Friedman said...

Early prediction: Gen. Wesley Clark will be the Democratic VP nominee, regardless of who wins the primaries.

Huck said...

lamom - Hi! Great to hear from you! I remember you well from the days when my Semillas site was active. I'll have to add your site to my Otros Buenos blog-roll.

You are right about the South being in play for Obama regardless. I had always thought as much before; but I guess the outcome in NH made me subconsciously more worried. Thanks for shaking me out of that doldrum and back into a more confident frame of mind.

Huck said...

P_F: Wesley Clark!?!? Wow, that call is an unexpected shocker. I haven't thought of Clark since 2004. If it turns out to be as you predict, I will offer you as much as I can afford for your crystal ball! I find it so very unlikely, but I guess anything is possible.

President Friedman said...

Write it down.

Especially with an Obama candidacy, Wesley Clark will give him a huge foreign policy and military boost. He also fits in well with the "positive" message, being a guy who doesn't sling a lot of mud. Clark has stuck around since '04, he still makes regular appearences on many of the news networks. He is very personable, comes off as a pretty sharp guy, and is just Midwestern enough that he can sell himself to both northern and southern, urban and rural voters. It would be hard for a Dem to do much better for a VP than Clark.

D-BB said...

Lamomma, you said "I think the South would be in play for Obama regardless of who were running with him. I have a feeling that the large African-American population there is going to be really excited about him."

Lamomma, here da deal. Black people got excited over Eddie Jordan, took Nagin over Landrieu, re-elected Barry as DC's mayor. You "think"?

Look, even if Osama was convicted of slicing his wife's neck and looting hotel rooms in Vegas, he would be a lock for the black vote.

Ain't no way any of us are gonna be voting for the so called first black lady, no matter how much she cries.

I better copy this just in case the Huckster finds this offensive.

Huck said...

LAmom - pay no mind to D-BB. He's what I call a blogger performance artist -- attempting maximum shock value just for the thrill of it. But he's harmless.

Now, D-BB, I do find your rant offensive. On so many levels. LAmom's comments certainly don't merit such kinds of responses; but I'm sure she'll take your trashtalk for the garbage that it is. Anyway, your comments reflect on you, not me. Why would I want to try to keep the kind of character you are hidden behind the wall of censorship? I thinking letting nitwits expose themselvs as such is a great community service. I'm not one for censorship. Just keep the language clean, and stay away from physical threats. Do that, and you can be the biggest nitwit on these comment threads. It's you who have to live with your mean-ol'-rotten self -- not LAmom, and not I. Thank God for that!

LAmom said...

I do recognize d-bb's comments as being worthless, but I'm slightly curious as to whether he knows that I'm black or whether he thought he was talking to a white person and he could get away with trash-talking blacks. But only slightly curious, it's not that important.

Huck said...

LAmom - I suspect D-BB didn't know you were black. And I also suspect he thinks you're from Louisiana, and not Los Angeles. And if he came back to look at these comments, I imagine, if he's got any shred of decency about him, that he's embarrassed by his uncouth and racist remarks.

I think it's clear he was trying to provoke me into censoring him, but I won't give him that satisfaction. What I will do, though, is to express my regret to you that you had to endure this garbage on my blog.

D-BB said...

Wait a second Huck. You’re sounding like Dr. Phil.

Exactly what did I say that was untrue? Perhaps the O.J. reference was a bit of "performance". Well, sort of since he did walk but so did Robert Blake and Phil Spector so I will go with the performance "excuse" on him. The rest are facts. To spare someone's feelings, that point should not be made? No way Jose. (Crap, did I do it again?)

Wake up you two. Blacks vote for blacks. Whites vote for whites but will crossover more so than blacks but then only in certain demographics. Women will tend to vote for women but with even a greater crossover especially with older women. Hillary wept and got the women to come out and scored a big upset in New Hampshire. (Crap, did I do it again?)

Shit, I ain’t gotta defend myself.

There’s not a night that goes by when the “black vote" or the “woman vote” or the “Christian vote” isn’t mention on the big 3 news broadcast. I just “illuminate” it. So don’t go all Jesse Sharpon on me. It will just encourage me.

Also, do not make excuses for me. I saw lamom's profile on her blog before I left the comment. What is your point Hucky? If she is white, it’s OK to say what I said but since she is black, I have to keep my mouth shut? Now that’s a load of Montezuma’s revenge my amigo.

If I single out blacks as “taboo” for my so called “performance” rants, then and only then can you call me insensitive. In fact, then you can me call me a racist.

Regardless, do not call the truth "performance".