How Have the Saints Clinched a Spot in the Playoffs?

The New Orleans Saints (10-3) have clinched a spot in the playoff, even if they lose their next three games.

Here's how it breaks down.

The current NFC standings are as follows:

Green Bay Packers (13-0) - NFC North
San Francisco 49ers (10-3) - NFC West
New Orleans Saints (10-3) - NFC South
Atlanta Falcons (8-5) - NFC South
Detroit Lions (8-5) - NFC North
Dallas Cowboys (7-5) - NFC East
Chicago Bears (7-6) - NFC North
New York Giants (6-6) NFC East

Every other team in the NFC has only five wins and so none of them can catch up to the Saints to displace them for a Wild Card spot.  So of the top 8 NFC teams, six will make their way to the playoffs with either a Wild Card spot or a Division Title.  All the Saints have to do is to beat out two of these teams under any scenario and they are in the playoffs.  So let's see how it works out.

The Chicago Bears' loss today to the Denver Broncos was the critical piece of the puzzle for the Saints. The Bears are in the NFC North Division, so they have no chance to win their division, which is locked up by the Packers.  The best the Bears can hope for now is a Wild Card spot.  But the Bears' loss puts their record at 7-6.  So even if the Bears win out their last three games, that will put their record at 10-6, which would tie the Saints if the Saints lose out their next three games.  But, the Saints beat the Bears in Week 2, and this head-to-head victory gives the Saints the edge over the Bears according to the tie-breaker rules.  So, even if the Saints lose their final three games, they would go to the playoffs ahead of the Bears no matter what the Bears do over the final three weeks.  That eliminates one of the contenders.

The Dallas Cowboys (7-5) and the New York Giants (6-6) are currently playing and are vying for the NFC East Division title.  If the Cowboys defeat the Giants today, the Giants fall to 6-7.  That puts them four games behind the Saints.  So they can't get in the playoffs over the Saints as a Wild Card.  The only chance they will have to get into the playoffs is to win their division.  And the best record they can hope for is a 9-7 records.  If they win their division with a 9-7 record, it will mean that they have won out their last three games and that the Cowboys have lost at least two of their last three games to give them an equal or worse record.  If that's the case, then the Saints will win a Wild Card spot over any team in the NFC East because, even if the Saints lose out their last three games, they will still have a 10-6 record.  Now if the Giants defeat the Cowboys today, the Cowboys would fall to 7-6 and the Giants would rise to 7-6.  That would leave both the Cowboys and the Giants tied for the NFC East Division title, but each would still be three games behind the Saints.  So, in order for either the Giants or the Cowboys to claim a Wild Card spot over the Saints, the Saints would have to lose out their last three games and both the Cowboys and the Giants would have to win out their last three games.  But here's the kicker: the Giants and the Cowboys play again in the final week of the regular season, so it is impossible for both teams to go 10-6!  One team will go 10-6 and win the division, the other team would go 9-7 and fall behind the Saints for a Wild Card slot, even if the Saints lose out their final three games.  Thus the second team of the 8 playoff contenders affecting the Saints chances goes away. And even if the Giants and Cowboys win their next two games and tie in their final regular season matchup, they both would end up with a 9-5-1 record.  One of them would win the division and the other would fail to have enough wins to supplant the Saints for a Wild Card spot, even if the Saints lose their next three games and end up with a 10-6 record, for a Wild Card spot.  So, under any scenario in the NFC East, the Saints advance over one or the other of the Giants or the Cowboys no matter what the Giants or the Cowboys do.

Of course, that reality is likely to be much different than the worst-case scenario I painted above; but even in this worst-case scenario, the Saints still will go to the playoffs.  Geaux Saints!  Who Dat?!?!?