Wednesday, July 07, 2010

The Democratic Take-Back of Congressional District 2 Begins

Formal qualifying for this Fall's local, state and national elections has officially begun. Democratic State Rep. Juan LaFonta has officially thrown his hat into the ring to contest Republican incumbent Ahn "Joseph" Cao for Louisiana's Congressional District 2 seat. Given Cao's sellout of his constituents in the Health Insurance Reform vote, this is one Congressional House election that Republicans aren't talking about when they speak of a 2010 repeat of 1994. Why? Because this is one sure "flip" that won't be going their way. I suspect that another strong Democratic Candidate in Cedric Richmond will also soon be throwing his hat into the ring, too. I'll be following and tracking this particular Congressional race closely. I like both Richmond and LaFonta, but for various reasons. And I have my reservations about each of them, too. But one thing is for sure, I WILL NOT be voting for Cao.


Kevin said...

Richmond declared at a glitzy campaign party at the WWII Museum a couple of weeks ago. He had a lot of state Reps. on hand to support him (and send a message to LaFonta).

From Richmond's speech, it's clear that he's going to hit Cao not just on his health care vote, but on the Lilly Ledbetter vote.

eric said...

I don't think a lot of people expected Cao to be re-elected anyway, considering he just barely beat an indicted William Jefferson out of that seat in the last election... but I do recall reading an article somewhere on the intertubes that there could be a 'perfect storm' of popular black Democrat and Independent candidates running who could conceivably split the vote in Cao's favor. You think there's any truth to that?

Huck said...

Kevin - Thanks for the info. I guess being away in Mexico, I miss some of these things. I knew Richmond was running, missed his coming out party, and am waiting for him to formally submit the paperwork. Should be an interesting race. I'm wondering what your impression is of Richmond's event a few weeks back. Do you think he sent a strong message to LaFonta?

eric - that "perfect storm" was what happened last time around. I don't think that's possible this time around. Yes, it is possible that Richmond and LaFonta and others could split the vote, but I don't think Cao will win 50% plus 1 the first go around to avoid a runoff. So, even if Cao wins a plurality of 35% to Richmond's 30%, LaFonta's 25%, and some other person's 10%, Cao will not win in the subsequent runoff -- not when the district's Republican voter registration amounts to less than 35% of the total voting population (and certainly not when Cao has stiffed his constituents on legislation we feel strongly in favor of). In short, Cao is toast. If he can't win my vote (and I'm someone very sympathetic to Cao on a very personal level), he's got no chance at all to keep the seat. It's a guaranteed flip in favor of the Democrats.