Mayoral Race Thoughts

I haven't commented on the New Orleans Mayoral race in a while. But a lot has happened in the past couple weeks. The biggest news is the withdrawal from the race of State Sen. Ed Murray. He was perhaps the best known and leading black candidate in the race. His departure, I think, makes it very likely that our new mayor will be a white male, something the city hasn't had since the 1970s: either Mitch Landrieu or John Georges. Not that this should matter, but the reality in New Orleans is that it usually does and thus it is a pretty big deal. I think Murray's departure benefits primarily Mitch Landrieu, as he and Murray have similar political careers (i.e. are established and experienced politicians). They also probably have the most likely crossover appeal to their voting constituencies, not to mention well-established name recognition. So, this makes Mitch the favorite. The one caveat I will throw out here is that James Perry could fill the gap with the black community left by Ed Murray's departure. However, Perry has relatively very low name recognition with this community, and doesn't appear to have the funding to promote himself. But, Perry does appeal to a certain segment of the young urban professional white community, a fair number of whom crave a tech-savvy political outsider -- all of which Perry is.

But I haven't seen much movement in the Perry campaign, so I'd still have to go with Landrieu as the favorite, with John Georges (and his deep pockets and appeal to what conservative Republicans there are out there) as the next in line. Polling seems to indicate this ranking, and my intuition tells me that this polling is right. However, I'm still not fully committed to anyone. I'm leaning towards Landrieu heavily, but I do like James Perry, too. We'll see.